What is forecasting? Forecasting is built into the human
psyche as each action an individual takes is intended to have a certain
outcome. To assume how each action works, a certain amount of knowledge is
required on how things work. Indeed, in
order to identify how things work one must analyse the aspects of the world
that are eternal. Things that are eternal serve as the basis for most
decision-making as this lends hand to predictability and a proper foresighted
outcome.
However, knowledge carries a caveat. It is rarely perfect.
Many actions have unintended consequences despite their best intentions. Sometimes,
the understanding of methodology as to how an outcome has derived is
unimportant – for example, if I turn on a light switch, I expect the room to illuminate – yet, the
prerequisite for understanding such an action does not require an understanding
of why the room illuminates.
In my understanding and exploration of geopolitics, there
are components in the union of geography and power that allow the ability to
forecast.
In essence, geography is the largest limitation to how a country,
state, group can conduct itself. Napoleon succeeded in conquering Western
Europe because the geography of France complimented the formation of a nation-state.
The geography of Western Europe complimented his conquest, through Belgium,
Germany and beyond until he reached his limitations on the road to Moscow.
As a student, I have made a forecast in the choosing an
education that gives me the platform to choose a career that will please me in
the next ten years, what would be useful & enriching and be able to make
money for the indulgence of many of life’s pleasures. From such a macro-level
of life decision making, to micro decision-making of crossing the road -
forecasting is eternal.
What must happen and what might happen
Forecasting and intelligence are the most important components
of defence. Many would say the opposite, that forecasting and intelligence are
more important for offensive operations but forecasting allows dealing with the
enemy of tomorrow. By analysing geopolitical trends, historical analysis and the
elements of process-tracing, one is able to formulate a strategy of must happen rather than what might happen.
The distinction between must and might is important. How
does one distinguish what must happen and what might happen? It is difficult to
answer such a question positively. Instead, analysing what can’t happen and
limiting the options give the most fruitful answer. To find out what can’t
happen, analysing the forces that act enable one to predict what cannot happen.
Once you predict what cannot happen, you are left with the options that must
happen given the cocktail of constraints and limitations people, groups and
states go through.
Human beings have choices. They make individual choices
shaped by a variety of reasons. Their family, their upbringing, their cultural
identity, their education, their experiences and their enlightened destiny are
the source and derivations of many of individual choices.
A reasonable assumption to make when forecasting human
behavior is that an individual will make a decision that gives maximum
happiness and security. Happiness and security are two subjective concepts.
Happiness takes itself in variety of forms with varying wave lengths – it also
fickle. Security varies from environment and context – it is never absolute but
always requires a threshold to be labelled “secure”.
Source of miscalculation
The idea of happiness has evolved since the late 17th
century. The age of enlightenment sown the construct of “enlightened happiness”,
that humans make choices rationally for their own pre-conceived definition of
happiness. The idea that you were not limited by your religion, community or
financial situation has been a recurring and evolving theme for the past three
hundred years in the pursuit of happiness.
Secondly, the humans forecasting themselves whereby their
own vices, wishes and preconceptions colour their view of how other humans will
behave – and the source of miscalculation.
The fear of miscalculation arises from another neighbour. It
is difficult to predict, on the surface, your neighbours motives, wishes and
ambitions without looking into what shapes their individuality. The same occurs
on a community level and on a state level. Natural scepticism of the unknown has
been the largest source of fear in humanity.
The reason for the fear is that the fundamentally related to
protection. Humans will protect what is important to 1) their survival 2) their
needs and security assurances 3) their quest of self-actualization. Survival is
rooted in the family. A new-born cannot survive without care until at least the
age of five otherwise it dies. Needs and security assurances are rooted in the
community. A family itself will be inadequate to protect itself from the forces
that be; the environment, nature and other communities complicate security
assurances.
The quest for self-actualization is a tertiary concept, not as
important as survival and needs and security assurances but important nonetheless.
Particularly in post-industrial, advanced societies, education and nurture has
been designed in such a way to maximize each individual’s opportunity to
achieve self-actualization.
"Worse case scenario"
This lends hand to what the fear of miscalculation entails.
The unknown intention of another naturally evokes fear because it can be
detrimental and contrasting to the interests you have at heart. In casual
relationships, you are able to have a wide threshold in assuming the best in
people purely because the cost of miscalculation is trivial. When that evolves
into the fear of miscalculation is your own happiness, freedom, life or dignity
to that of your family, spouse or children the consequences of miscalculation
dramatically decrease your right and ability to assume the best and the worst
case scenario takes an antecedence.
For a state, a defined territorial entity expelling
sovereignty over that geographic space, the matrix of human interactions in the
paradigms of emotion, the love of one’s own people, self-interest and destiny
and therefore community, the fear of miscalculation forces a state to assume
the worst case scenario. An ally of today maybe the enemy of tomorrow – the human
security and national security takes precedence in all forms of policy making.
This is all done under the guise of the “worst-case scenario”
- this fundamental assumption allows preparation and the formulation of adequate
strategic preparation. Of course, it is impossible to fully predict the future –
this predominately because social forecasting systems are built on a statistical
model consisting of many individuals trying to unify the wide aspects of the
human condition under the same assumptions.
This is a difficult to quantify
because the human condition always has an aura of unpredictability and
irrationality. Given such models lay on the fact that humans are rational
beings, they are often make irrational choices. Take for instance, Hitler’s acquisition
of strategic planning in Operation Barabossa where he ignored the far more
qualified opinion of Heinz Guderian.
It is hard to remedy such a decision and it inevitably cost
the Third Reich the war. Such behavior is unpredictable and has always been part
of decision-making. States are commanded by individuals and because of that,
geopolitical forecasting may be able to call 80-90% forecasted predictions but
the 10% is the mystique and unexplainable component of human behaviour that
cannot be quantified or explained rationally, it is just a constituent that
must be dealt with and anticipated, rather than forecasted.
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