Wednesday, 3 July 2013

Egypt - What now after Morsi?

Tamarod movement in Egypt is primarily defined by its opposition to President Morsi
Reuters/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
On July 3, the Egyptian military chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced that the country's president, Mohammad Morsi, had been removed because of failure to bring stability and address popular civil unrest. In turn, the Egyptian constitution had been suspended and the chief of the country's constitutional court will assume presidency until elections are ready to be deployed. In wake of this, the military has been deployed in key tactical sectors in and around Cairo to dilute tensions between Pro-Morsi and Anti-Morsi demonstrators. The unrest has been primarily spearheaded by those opposed to Morsi's presidency also known as the Tamarod movement. The Tamarod movement is an umbrella term to encompass those who are in opposition to Morsi's presidency and doesn't, at this point in time, have a unified political objective.

Morsi's departure as president has therefore undermined international efforts and strategy in incorporating radical islamists in the Arab world into political discourse. This will in turn lend the more ultra-conservative, Salafist entities to abandon mainstream politics and be in favour of armed conflict to advance their political objectives. This, then, puts the Egyptian military in a difficult position - the Egyptian military's concern is that of order; to dilute and eradicate sources of chaos to promote the country's stability. The Egyptian military strategy is to take control of the political apparatus of Egypt and organize the nation to establish once again civilian rule through an election at a specified date. The military is not concerned with the ideological politics and will support any opposition that provides stability. The opposition itself, whilst fragmented, do seem to support constitutional democracy but as for the general populace, it is highly probable that their self-interest is in their immediate security (food, jobs and resources) and less about liberal principles. It shouldn't be overlooked, however, that Morsi was a democratically elected president - but only by a slim margin. 

So what for the future? The military will first concentrate its efforts on diminishing tensions between the two adversarial political entities. The key aspect of perceived military control, the greater chance of aggravating tensions. Thus, the Egyptian military will seek to initiate return to civil society as soon as possible. In light of this however, the disposal of Morsi illustrates the need for Coalition governance. To address political grievances of both sides is of paramount importance and, in consensus, re-organize the Egyptian political framework for the long-term - something the Morsi administration failed to achieve. A Coalition government will be difficult to attain but it is only workable solution in order to depolarize Egyptian politics further.

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1 comment:

  1. If u carry on like this you'll do very well... you seem to explain a lot in a very concise manner, in doing so breaking down complexities... not something I share a talent for haha. The interesting question I guess is how naïve a conception of modern democracy do Egyptians have? To what lengths will they go, and what is it exactly they are aspiring to achieve, especially if we compare the general apathy of, say, Brits, with their own 'modern democracy'...